O Futuro da Informação
O Futuro da Informação
@MTSlive
Chronicling the singularity
Ball knowledge with @deanwball on MTS rn x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Why is every AI lab starting a deployment company? @matt_slotnick on what's driving the trend: "The thing we currently call FDE is gonna blossom into a lot more different jobs... all really about how do we bring applied intelligence into the flow of work
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Will AI intelligence eventually be priced like electricity? Sam Altman has argued AI will eventually be metered like electricity. We asked @matt_slotnick whether he agrees: "Think about the best people in an organization... the ones you throw at the big,
SITUATION EXPLAINED: How much are frontier labs actually spending on training data? .@SeanZCai: "Frontier labs are spending about $10 to $15 billion per lab on data." "Really good long horizon tasks go up to $20,000 each. A complete browser-use version of SAP was rumored at x.com/15366027432546…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Blue Origin's New Glenn 4 rocket rapidly disassembled during a static fire test at Cape Canaveral. • Nobody was injured, all staff accounted for • The eastern range of launchpads at Cape Canaveral remain fully mission capable • Blue Origin must finish the
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Why is creative writing the hardest domain for AI to get right? @SeanZCai: "There are three aspects to verification of any domain: asymmetry, proliferation, and veracity. All three contribute to exactly how unverifiable a domain is." "Asymmetry: how many
SITUATION EXPLAINED: OpenAI just deployed frontier AI for biodefense. • They're launching Rosalind Biodefense and expanding access to GPT-Rosalind for select government and allied partners • GPT-Rosalind is GPT-5.5 with reduced bio guardrails, designed specifically for x.com/20292711464458…
SITUATION DETECTED: The CFTC has approved Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, the first of its kind in the United States.
Them: "Just go up and talk to her bro, whats the worst that could happen?" The worst that could happen:
BLUE ORIGIN EXPLOSION | OPENAI BIODEFENSE | SAMSUNG SHIPS HBM4E | DANIEL TENREIRO x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI has launched Rosalind Biodefense, a program to help developers build biodefense and pandemic preparedness tools using frontier AI.
SITUATION UPDATE: President Trump says the US Navy is lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and that he is meeting in the Situation Room to make a “final determination” on the Iran deal.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: @nukebarbarian wrote a cautionary piece called Ebat's World. In this piece, drone operators bid on warfare contracts through live auctions and stream their operations. Audiences wager on the outcomes through prediction markets. We asked him how we would x.com/18578682580090…
DAILY SITUATION RECAP:
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Is Peter Thiel moving to Argentina? • He recently attended River Plate vs Boca Juniors, Argentina's most storied soccer match • Hired a local art dealer to furnish his home • Hosted intellectuals and economists at his mansion to discuss "Argentina and the
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Are we at peak tokenmaxxing? • One company accidentally spent $500M in a single month, after failing to put cloud licenses for employees • Microsoft and Uber burned through their annual AI budgets in months • Meta had an internal leaderboard ranking
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Anthropic just raised $65B at a $965B valuation. Three months ago they were at $380B. • Run rate revenue crossed $47B this month • Co-led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia • Participation from Jane Street, Blackstone, Fidelity, General Catalyst, x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Anthropic just raised $65B at a $965B valuation. Three months ago they were at $380B. • Run rate revenue crossed $47B this month • Co-led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia • Participation from Jane Street, Blackstone, Fidelity, General Catalyst, x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Illinois just passed the strongest AI safety bill in any US state: SB 315, the Artificial Intelligence Safety Measures Act. It requires major frontier AI developers to undergo mandatory annual independent third-party audits of their safety practices and to x.com/18611207660808…
Days after OpenAI's 125-page proof, Anthropic's Mythos solved the same Erdős problem over a weekend. A "cute, simple proof," in one engineer's words. The proof wasn't as big a surprise as how easily the second model got there. x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: is Universal Basic Income necessary? .@JordanSchachtel: "The history of technological progress has shown us one thing: quality of life, employment, and every metric that contributes to human flourishing improves." "Things might change, but preemptive UBI is x.com/535643852/stat…
.@balajis: "The leftist thinks there's infinite money." "They think you can just push a button to end homelessness and poverty. They don't understand scarce resources in the physical world." "The rightist thinks there's infinite power." "They don't viscerally understand that
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Hermeus flew supersonic just 364 days after its first flight ever. .@Zsshore: "Kelly Johnson at SkunkWorks is very famous for iterative development, American innovation in aviation really degraded at his retirement." "There's nobody you can hire (from Skunk x.com/1009922466/sta…
OpenAI's model recently settled an 80-year-old Erdős problem by itself. It found number theory nobody had pointed at geometry, and broke the square-grid barrier. It did so without assistance or scaffolding. x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION DETECTED: Hyperscaler capex has quadrupled since GPT-4’s release and is on track to hit $770B in 2026 and over $1T in 2027, per Epoch AI.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Anthropic just released Claude Opus 4.8, and the main shift seems to be longer autonomous work. The benchmarks are strong across the board: • 69.2% on SuiteBench Pro • 75% on TerminalBench for agentic coding • 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam without tools, x.com/20292711464458…
.@balajis on why the network has already won in America: "What's upstream of all politics? X. What's taking over the financial system? Crypto. What's the center of the US economy right now? AI and data centers." "Do politicians need their X accounts? Absolutely. When Trump was
Food $200 Data $150 Rent $1200 Claude credits: $500 million Utility $150 Someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this, my company is dying x.com/madisonmills22…
SITUATION UPDATE: Anthropic’s run-rate revenue crossed $47B earlier this month.
SITUATION DETECTED: Anthropic has raised $65B at a $965B valuation, led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: @balajis says we're entering an internet-first world and most people still haven't clocked what that means. "The single most important force on the entire world, yet still underestimated, is the rise of the global internet." "The key moment was 1991 [when]
SITUATION BREWING: Anthropic says it plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks.
OpenAI and Anthropic's Mythos just independently disproved Erdös' unit-distance conjecture six days apart. We broke down the math, the models, and what it means that machines are now formally proving theorems. Read the full drop: drops.mts.now/aimath
SITUATION BREWING: In the Opus 4.8 announcement, Anthropic says it plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks.
SITUATION DETECTED: Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.8.
.@balajis is with us live talking about the fix everything button: "It's a great meme, there's some truth to it... what is missed is the people that have those bad ideas, you have to uninstall those bad ideas via persuasion before the button is built.” x.com/mtslive/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: We asked @AviSchiffmann about Friend interviews and patterns for hardcore users. "They are all so different from each other, but have the same kind of relationship with their Friends." "People have this very strong perception that AI friendship-related x.com/2183000371/sta…
BALAJI + STEVEN GLINERT | APPLE INTELLIGENCE RUMORS | LEOPOLD BUYS NEBIUS x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
SITUATION DETECTED: Groq is raising up to $650M from existing investors, after its $20B licensing deal with Nvidia saw much of its senior team depart, per Axios.
SITUATION REMEMBERED: 10 years ago today, we entered the post Harambe era.
10 years ago today, we entered the post Harambe era.
SITUATION BREWING: Apple is using Google’s Gemini model to train a smaller on-device AI model via distillation, ahead of WWDC, per The Information.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: We asked @neil_chilson two questions about his WSJ op-ed against the AI Overwatch Act. First, why would US competition not strengthen Chinese chip manufacturers? And second, China has a history of picking winners. Why is US policy relevant at all?
SITUATION DETECTED: The face of a man who has just had his first Alphonso mango. We had @fareehasala, @darshil and @parth220 on the show to talk Indian mangoes. They're throwing a mango party on the 31st of May.
SITUATION DETECTED: IRGC claims retaliatory attack on US airbase in Kuwait after last night's US Strike on site near Bandar Abbas.
SITUATION BREWING: The Pentagon is positioning forces for a potential military attack on Cuba, awaiting final authorization from Trump, per Politico.
DAILY SITUATION RECAP:
.@shakeelhashim says we're living in a moment where we need moral international leadership in the face of AI, and in theory, anyone can provide that leadership. "If the Pope isn't gonna provide the moral international leadership that I think people want at the moment, who will?"
The US export control argument assumes China is racing to build the most powerful AI. @neil_chilson (Head of AI Policy at the Abundance Institute) says China is running an entirely different race, and US policy is helping them win it. "Right now we're helping China run the x.com/39359057/statu…
SITUATION REMINISCED: Daft Punk released Discovery in 2001 and Random Access Memories in 2013. They made a movie, Interstella 5555: The 5tory of the 5ecret 5tar 5ystem (2003), to go with Discovery: a dialogue-free anime visual album directed by Kazuhisa Takenouchi with Discovery
SITUATION EXPLAINED: For 70 years, chips got better by making transistors smaller. Huawei says it found a different way. • Huawei published a new "Tau Scaling Law" replacing geometric scaling with time scaling • The idea is to compress signal propagation delay instead of
SITUATION REMINISCED: Spore (2008) is a life simulation and real-time strategy "god game" developed by Maxis and published by EA. Players guide a species from single-celled organism to galactic civilization across five stages: - Cell (primordial soup, eat or be eaten) -
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Epoch AI modeled how many H100-equivalent chips have been smuggled into China. The number is staggering. • 290,000 to 1.6 million H100 equivalents smuggled into China through end of 2025 • For context: xAI's Colossus, the world's largest data center, runs x.com/20292711464458…
SITUATION DETECTED: Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness has disclosed a 5.6% stake in AI infrastructure company Nebius.
Eli Lilly released extremely promising results from the Phase 1 trial of its new gene-editing drug VERVE-102. If these results hold up, it could be a one-shot permanent solution to cure the number one cause of heart disease. Our latest drop: drops.mts.now/lilly
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Robinhood just launched agentic trading. @ConejoCapital says it won't go mainstream until it gets its vibe coding moment. Mauricio Trujillo Ramirez is founder of ClawPump, an agentic finance startup that crossed $70M+ in trading volume in under two months. x.com/90834038674928…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Robinhood just launched agentic trading. @ConejoCapital says it won't go mainstream until it gets its vibe coding moment. Mauricio Trujillo Ramirez is founder of ClawPump, an agentic finance startup that crossed $70M+ in trading volume in under two months. x.com/90834038674928…
SITUATION DETECTED: Snowflake has signed a $6B deal with AWS for access to Amazon’s Graviton chips over five years, per WSJ.
SITUATION DETECTED: Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls for regulation and tax policy for AI in order to avoid creating a "permanent underclass" in an op-ed she published for Time.
SITUATION DETECTED: Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls for regulation and tax policy for AI in order to avoid creating a "permanent underclass" in an Op-Ed she published for Time.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Everyone assumes the humanoid robotics race will be won by whoever builds the best foundation model. @fleetingbits says that's exactly backwards. "The long run winners [in humanoid robotics] are people who make the robots cheaply, not those training the x.com/16991790457646…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: @ShakeelHashim on how AI will affect global wealth distribution. "The UBI conversation is happening in the US context." "All the leading AI companies are American." "The wealth is presumably gonna accrue to American companies, at the cost of labor in every
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Most people think AI companionship is a niche, lonely-person category. @AviSchiffmann says they're missing the point, the same one everyone missed with online dating. "15 years ago, it was the weirdest thing on the planet to meet people online, now every
SITUATION EXPLAINED: @josefchen trained the world's largest multilingual food model: 4.1M recipes, 7 languages and found the same scaling law that governs LLMs hiding inside cooking data. Josef is the CEO of Kaikaku AI, building foundational AI and robotics for food. "Without x.com/15732526941180…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: 6G may be what makes AI truly mobile. FCC Chairman @BrendanCarrFCC says each wireless jump unlocked a new layer of tech: • 4G unlocked the app economy • 5G made home broadband more competitive • 6G could bring together mobile, fixed wireless, and
SITUATION DETECTED: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the company plans to invest $150B a year in Taiwan, up from $10-15B five years ago.
FCC CHAIR BRENDAN CARR | COGNITION $26B | OAI NONPROFIT | MICRON, HYNIX $1T x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
SITUATION UPDATE: South Korea recorded its largest jump in births in 33 years in March, up 19.4% to 25,200, while total fertility rate rose to 0.93.
SITUATION DETECTED: The OpenAI Foundation will commit $250 million to help workers and economies navigate AI disruptions.
SITUATION DETECTED: Cognition AI has raised more than $1B at a $26B valuation, per Bloomberg. Lux Capital, General Catalyst, and 8VC co-led the round.
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenRouter has raised a $113M Series B led by CapitalG at a $1.3B valuation, per NYT. The AI model gateway now processes 100 trillion tokens per month, up 5x in six months.
We asked @ZackKorman which threats he think are underrated in the era of fast-advancing AI capabilities. " I basically consider some cybersecurity vendors, like, equivalent to threat actors." "That will lead to more problems than any of the vulnerability apocalypse discoveries
SITUATION EXPLAINED: We asked @ZackKorman what he thought of the 'vulnerabilities overhang'. "I f you are the type of organization that is worried about novel exploits, like, you are a very weird organization to begin with." For most organizations it's going to be simpler.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: This year has seen several high-profile supply chain attacks. @ZackKorman explains, against his will, how they work, why they're dangerous and why they're boring from a cybersecurity perspective.
Cybersecurity as a field remained skeptical of the utility of AI models for longer than software engineering did. @ZackKorman says that one of the side effects of that skepticism was that there were many codebases that had never been exposed to AI-powered vulnerability review.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: You might have seen images of huge lines and excited crowds for a Palantir meetup in Tokyo, Japan on Tuesday. @rieglobe explained that Palantir has a very different reputation in Japan than it does in the US, partly because of the role they played in the x.com/15492766121761…
SITUATION DETECTED: Taiwan prosecutors have detained three individuals suspected of smuggling Nvidia chips to China via Japan, per Bloomberg.
The Pope's encyclical on humanity in the age of AI has brought new attention to the relationship between frontier technology and religious belief. @msgwrites has thought deeply about what this means for people of all faiths and for the leading AI labs themselves. His suggestion
In a recent essay, @Dorialexander argues that two factors are driving winner-takes-all dynamics in the US AI sector: the scale economics of MoE inference and the development of synthetic training data. Here he talks through what these factors might mean for agents as a product
Read the full essay on The AI Decoupling here: vintagedata.org/blog/posts/the…
SITUATION DETECTED: Qwen3.7-Max Reaches #4 on Code Arena, Ties Claude Opus 4.6.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: People don’t believe good things can happen without a catch. • Diet Coke has existed for 43 years • People still act like “free lunches” can’t be real • The same instinct shows up with GLP-1s • If something works too well, people assume there must be x.com/12375442837434…
SITUATION DETECTED: SK Hynix has crossed $1T in market cap, up 11% today and 250% this year on demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI servers.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Lux Aeterna is building satellites with re-entry capability. “We build fully reusable satellites. The whole point of that is to get to fleet operations in space.” “Right now, all satellites are constellations, one-time use deployments. We really delineate
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Reusable satellites could make space missions iterate much faster. Brian Taylor (CEO of Lux Aeterna) explains how: “When you use an asset for more than one mission, you can amortize it across many missions. But really this is a supply chain resiliency and
DAILY SITUATION RECAP:
SITUATION ANALYSIS: China may win the AI talent battle and lose the talent war. .@michaelsobolik: “The CCP does have a history of pocketing short-term strategic gains that turn into long-term losses.” “That may apply to AI talent too. Restricting top researchers could help x.com/20292711464458…
.@timhwang says AI alignment may be applied moral philosophy disguised as science. "At the end of the day, you're building machine god, but what you need to do is you need to convince companies to use this as an API for their business processes." "[Labs] say, 'We're involved x.com/14903327/statu…
SITUATION ANALYSIS: the printing press helped create the Reformation because it changed how ideas moved. AI may force a similar update. @_ontologic says religions can’t treat AI like a niche tech issue: “AI is a new printing press. It is a radically new and different way of
Erdős AI breakthrough explained:
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Section 99 of the Pope's encyclical focuses specifically on the limitations of AI consciousness. @timhwang says “does AI think?” may be the wrong question: "Aquinas talks a little bit about, you know, the fact that there are many different kinds of soul...
SITUATION EXPLAINED: China is trying to stop AI brain drain before it starts. @michaelsobolik says this is bigger than just Alibaba and DeepSeek: “Some of the founders, senior executives, senior engineers in a lot of these AI companies appear to be implicated. Importantly, x.com/20292711464458…
SITUATION BREWING: AI inference provider Baseten is in talks to raise $1B at an $11B valuation, per The Information.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Software is splitting into two economies. What @Dorialexander says is happening: “SaaS and AI went separate directions even though they were really one economy originally. Software as a category changed.” “What is really scaling right now is the model. The
SITUATION UPDATE: The Trump administration is publicly split on Pope Leo XIV’s AI encyclical. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum dismissed it, while JD Vance called the document “profound” and the kind of “moral leadership” the church should offer at the start of the AI age.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: the race to prevent heart disease is accelerating. What @cremieuxrecueil says is happening: • Multiple companies are targeting LDL • Some use CRISPR • Some use epigenetic silencing • Targets include PCSK9, ANGPTL3, and LDLR • The goal is a one-shot or x.com/16375070995580…
Agora-1 is the first world model that lets four people inhabit the same generated environment at once. No engine, no rendered graphics, just the model running live. x.com/MTSlive/status…
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI has hired former ServiceNow CMO Colin Fleming as Chief Marketing Officer for its business unit.
