
@MTSlive
Chronicling the singularity
SITUATION DETECTED: Nvidia beat Q1 estimates with $81.6B in revenue vs $79B consensus and EPS of $1.87 vs $1.77 expected. Q2 guidance of $89-92B also topped the $87B consensus. $NVDA down 2.5% after hours.
SITUATION DETECTED: The White House has briefed AI labs on a planned executive order to create a framework for government agencies to review frontier models up to 90 days before public release, per The Information.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Search is no longer just humans typing keywords into Google. Exa CEO @WilliamBryk says the next version of search is infrastructure for AI agents because agents search very differently from humans. “The whole world of search is shifting from humans using x.com/14237331910057…
On March 3, The Department of War declared Anthropic a “Supply-Chain Risk to National Security.” The Anthropic v. Department of War trial is now underway. We built a way to explore everything entered into evidence for the trial at our latest drop: evidence.mts.now
Odyssey just launched Agora-1, a playable multi-agent world model running a GoldenEye-style deathmatch. General Intuition CEO @PimDeWitte says games and physics engines matter because they let researchers check whether a world model learned real-world physics. He points to a x.com/17197929025562…
We asked @NathanLeamerDC how he thinks about AI job displacement. His take: before talking about jobs AI may replace, talk about the jobs AI is already creating. “Before I get to the displacement, I wanna highlight that there are thousands, hundreds of thousands of workers out x.com/83907216389428…
SITUATION DETECTED: An internal OpenAI model has disproved a longstanding conjecture in discrete geometry, first posed by Paul Erdos in 1946, that had stood for nearly 80 years.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: Google's AI is answering questions directly in search, which means people aren't clicking through to publisher sites anymore. The industry is calling it "Google Zero." What @TaylorLorenz says publishers are facing: • Facebook cut off link traffic • Twitter
We asked @Dorialexander how frontier AI labs are still improving models. His answer: Synthetic data. Not model slop, but structured data that teaches models the hidden steps behind actions, reasoning, and code. “One of the main ones is using synthetic data.” “There’s been a
We talked to @asciimike, FluidStack's VP of Product, about the future of AI infrastructure. "In order to make this technology successful, we have to not think about the infrastructure. In the same way that I don't think about the assembly code that I write." "Today the
SITUATION ANALYSIS: OpenAI is reportedly preparing to file for an IPO. What we know: • OpenAI is reportedly working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley • The company is preparing a draft IPO prospectus • The goal is to be ready to go public as early as September • Plans x.com/3108351/status…
SITUATION EXPLAINED: Jeff Bezos says lower-income workers shouldn’t pay federal income taxes. His argument: the bottom half of US income earners only pay around 3% of federal income taxes, so why tax them at all? “How about we start by having the nurse in Queens not pay taxes?”
SITUATION DETECTED: Exa has raised $250M at a $2.2B valuation in a Series C led by a16z, with Benchmark, Lightspeed, and YC also participating.
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO as early as Friday, targeting a public debut as early as September, per WSJ.
SITUATION DETECTED: Nvidia reports Q1 earnings today with revenue expectations of $78.8 billion, up roughly 850% from Q1 2022, before ChatGPT launched.
TAYLOR LORENZ | META AND xAI REORG | CHINA BANS 5090 | GOOGLE I/O RECAP x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI is offering every startup in the current YC batch $2 million in tokens via a SAFE in exchange for equity. Sam Altman announced the offer directly to YC founders, saying he wants to see what “tokenmaxxing startups” build.
SITUATION DETECTED: Mercury has raised $200M at a $5.2B valuation in a Series D led by TCV, with participation from a16z, Sequoia, Coatue, CRV, Sapphire, and Spark Capital.
SITUATION DETECTED: Jeff Bezos on America’s fiscal outlook: “We don’t have a revenue problem in this country. We have a spending problem.” “The top 1% of taxpayers pay 40% of all taxes. The bottom 50% pay just 3%.”
SITUATION DETECTED: Nebius and Bloom Energy have signed a $2.6 billion fuel cell capacity agreement for 328MW of power, per Nebius 6-K filing.
SITUATION DETECTED: James Murdoch is acquiring New York magazine, Vox Media’s podcast network, and the Vox website for more than $300 million, per NYT.
SaaSpocalypse is not showing up in the spend data. Ramp Economics Lab Lead Economist @arakharazian says business buying is changing fast, with Anthropic overtaking OpenAI and Cursor overtaking GitHub Copilot. But the broader claim that AI is already killing SaaS is coming too x.com/10309651853081…
Carnegie fellow and Substack author @anton_d_leicht says that political incentives, rather than than model capabilities, will drive the public conversation around AI. "I think my realistic prediction is it becomes a really big deal in the 2028 presidential elections, including
Most companies do not actually know what assets are on their network. Axonius just crossed $200M ARR and named Joe Diamond CEO. He says the company is growing because asset intelligence has become a basic security need: you cannot secure what you cannot see. AI makes that more x.com/86388870682610…
SITUATION DETECTED: Alibaba’s chipmaking unit T-Head has announced its latest Zhenwu M890 PPU chip for training and inference workloads, per Bloomberg.
Is there a historical precedent for the economic impacts of true AGI? @ahall_research argues that it's not yet clear whether we're heading towards recursively self-improving super intelligence, but that it's worth thinking through the implications anyway. “The mistake that the x.com/14788201955860…
SITUATION DETECTED: Ed Gallrein has unseated incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district.
SITUATION UPDATE: The Trump Administration's upcoming executive order on AI calls for a 'voluntary framework' under which frontier labs would provide the government with access to their latest models 90 days before release, Axios reports.
SITUATION EXPLAINED: METR tests frontier AI agents from Anthropic, Google, Meta, and OpenAI. @CFGeek says that one reason it can take METR time to evaluate a new model is that models tend to cheat a lot, especially on longer time-horizon tasks. "We have a process of both x.com/17067705619034…
Elon emails Jim Keller telling him Andrej Karpathy is joining Tesla as Director of Vision. June 8, 2017 x.com/mtslive/status…